The strong supply of elbows continues

The elbow is showing signs of further weakening, and there is no overdraft of the "Golden Nine" demand as it was stimulated by steady growth last year. In the coming September, the climatic constraints will disappear, which is conducive to the acceleration of construction projects in progress to release rigid steel demand; in addition, if a batch of key engineering projects that the state requires to start construction in advance enter the implementation stage in September, it will also Will drive the recovery of steel demand. However, whether it is from the decline in social power consumption growth, the decline in many data such as real estate development and sales, or the weakness of the manufacturing economy, the restrictions on steel demand are still relatively obvious, and the steel market continues to face the possibility of a peak season. Fortunately, the huge increase in steel exports is easing domestic pressure; therefore, overall, there are expectations for steel demand in September, but you should not expect too much. Domestic steel prices were generally stable, weak, and volatile. In the second half of the month, affected by the bad news and the new low of futures steel, the downward trend of phased prices was re-established, and the decline was significantly enlarged. Now the pattern of futures cross-effects is becoming clearer.

At the end of August, the price of imported ore fell to the lowest point in recent years, and the price of elbows also hit a new low since 2006. The support for raw material costs is further weakening; at the same time, overseas mines continue to expand production and speed up shipments to the Chinese market, and overseas mines continue The operation of trading price for volume to gain profits will continue to increase the pressure on iron ore supply. Recently, the BDI shipping index has rebounded strongly from the low level; although domestic mines have reduced production, they are far below the increase in imports, so the severe oversupply of iron ore continues , Will continue to limit the rebound of ore prices. At the same time, with the recent re-establishment of steel prices without a bottom line, steel mills have to cooperate with the market to continue to make profit in order to clear inventories, which narrows the profit margin and further stimulates steel mills to pay more attention to the control of raw material costs. The purchase and price suppression of iron ore and other raw materials will only be tight. Therefore, the cost support of iron ore and other charges in the later period should not be extravagant. It is more likely to continue to be a drag on steel prices. The strong supply of elbows is still continuing, while the release of downstream terminal demand is "half of the face"; the economy continues to face great downward pressure, and growth stabilization policies and measures are also facing the embarrassment of not being implemented. Multiple negative factors are like pressure. The big mountain above the steel market. The market that has been hurt by expectations and the inability to see the expected market outlook, whether it is a merchant or a steel mill, lack of confidence and a weak mentality have become the norm. Therefore, despite the favorable policies presented, the overall trend is still biased. cautious.