The forward price of the elbow fluctuates downward

The forward price of the elbow fluctuates downward, the price of billet fluctuates weakly, and the confidence in the spot steel pipe market is still pessimistic. However, the current steel price has dropped to a staged low, and it is estimated that the room for further decline is relatively limited. It is also difficult for the construction steel pipe market to change the downward trend of prices, but the downward trend has been significantly slower than before. In markets such as Shanghai and Hangzhou, where the price of a ton has fallen by more than 100 yuan per week, the decline has generally narrowed to between 10 and 60 yuan. Merchants are very willing to ship, but the market demand continues to be sluggish. After a long period of decline, the current domestic construction steel price has been at a staged low. The overall weakness of the steel pipe market will not change. In the domestic ore market, steel pipe prices fell slightly, with a weekly drop of 20 yuan in ton prices. The "winter storage" of ore in some steel mills has basically ended, procurement has been suspended, and the transaction volume has gradually decreased. Imported ore prices rose first and then fell. The Platts 62% grade steel pipe index is currently at US$134.5 per ton, up US$1.25 a week. Affected by the speculation of "short-term themes" such as the Australian hurricane and the Brazilian flood, the quotations of foreign mines once rose significantly. However, the response of steel mills is mostly to wait and see, and the momentum for the market outlook to continue to rise is obviously insufficient. Analysts of relevant institutions believe that in the new year, the compression of environmental protection and excess capacity will be significantly increased, and the supply pressure on the elbow market will be adjusted later. The problem of overcapacity in the steel pipe industry is hard to return. The output of steel pipes will remain high in a short time. In summary, steel pipes have fallen, and the output of large and medium-sized steel pipe plants has decreased significantly. This is almost as expected by the market. The stock of steel pipe plants has dropped sharply in the short term. Putting pressure on the current market is not conducive to the rebound of steel prices. In the medium and long term, the rapid rebound of steel pipe production may be very low, and the probability of continued decline is greater, but the magnitude will be reduced, which is good for the rebound of steel prices. Therefore, the author believes that in the short term, steel prices will maintain a narrow consolidation trend, or may be weak.